By Joli Bennett, Contributor
Most people will agree that 2020 has been the year that taught us to expect the unexpected. Our lives have been altered in innumerable ways, and the restaurant industry has felt the brunt of this disruption.
The loss of jobs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the shift to working from home, the need for social distancing, new health and safety regulations for food service establishments, and the growing strain on essential workers—all of these play a part in determining the direction of restaurant trends for 2021. Some of these are directly related to the changes caused by COVID-19, and others have been accelerated by the pandemic and shifting lifestyle concerns.
Here are some of the trends to keep your eye on in 2021.
Alternatives to Meat
The popularity of plant-based meat alternatives has been growing steadily, but the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated that shift. Using Nielsen data, Food Dive analyzed changes in food purchasing during the first 31 weeks of the pandemic, ending October 3, 2020, and compared it to the same period in 2019. Consumer demand for meat alternatives in 2020 was at 129% of the demand in 2019, and it is likely that consumer interest carries over from in-store purchases to restaurant meals as well.
This fast growth is driven by a number of concerns: health, animal welfare, and the highly publicized outbreaks of COVID-19 among employees at meat-packing facilities.
Plant-based meat alternatives can take a variety of forms (burgers, ground “beef,” “chicken” strips, shredded “pork,” etc.), and can be produced from a number of different plant proteins, including soy, potatoes, jackfruit, and peas. The pandemic has fueled the demand for take-out and delivery, and restaurants can capitalize on those desires.
Impossible Foods, maker of the Impossible Burger, is promoting its new temporary policy that allows restaurants to sell Impossible Burgers through take-out or delivery for patrons to cook at home, as well as resources for restaurants wanting to sell inventory directly to customers and pivot “from restaurant to general store” during this crisis.
Farther off on the horizon are a few meat alternative technologies that are currently in development—ones that may possibly have a harder time winning over consumers than plant-based meat alternatives.
Israeli company Meat-Tech 3D, a cell-based meat producer that uses 3D technology to “bioprint” meat, has recently begun the process for an IPO in the U.S. Cell-culturing technology can also produce animal fats. One idea is to create hybrid products—for example, a cruelty-free burger which combines plant-based proteins with cell-cultured fats. In theory, this would create a burger which more closely approximates the flavor and aroma of a traditional burger.
And although they have yet to win over large swaths of the consumer population, edible insects and mealworms (whole or ground up to make burgers and other dishes) are another alternative meat option beginning to gain attention.
The Rise of Ghost Kitchens
Halloween may be over this year, but the ghost kitchen is in the ascendant. Also known as dark kitchens, virtual kitchens, cloud kitchens, commissary kitchens, delivery kitchens, and shadow kitchens, what these operations all have in common is that they produce food for customers but have no dine-in option and no storefront. Some establishments have always operated in this fashion, but COVID-19 has pushed a number of conventional independent restaurants toward the ghost kitchen model as a way to reinvent themselves and survive in an increasingly difficult environment.
In June 2020, the Independent Restaurant Commission estimated that 85% of independent restaurants may be forced to close in 2020 due to hardships caused by the pandemic. However, the same forces that have created problems for restaurants—restrictions on indoor dining and social distancing requirements for patron seating—are non-issues for ghost kitchens.
And the strengths of ghost kitchens align perfectly with increased consumer demand for food delivery and contactless dining options. Online restaurant ordering has increased since the pandemic began, and consumer enthusiasm for online ordering and food delivery is expected to continue into 2021 and beyond.
Ghost kitchens provide the opportunity to continue serving up delicious meals for customers minus the overhead of running a dining room. Ghost kitchens are often located in large warehouse spaces, far from the high-rent urban locations of most restaurants, and may be shared by a number of businesses, further reducing costs. That Uber founder Travis Kalanick has been investing upwards of $130 million in real-estate properties for his ghost kitchen operation, CloudKitchen, says something about the burgeoning interest in this model.
Delivery options for ghost kitchens include third-party delivery services and in-house delivery. There are good arguments for making the effort to develop a robust in-house delivery system, also known as direct delivery. With in-house delivery, restaurants maintain control over their branding and the customer experience from beginning to end. They keep their customers as their customers—they’re not sending them to another company. Many restaurants find that an in-house delivery system also allows them to keep a greater share of their profits. The restaurant can continue to employ its servers, whose job descriptions now include serving food at customers’ homes instead of at their tables. This is a way for the restaurant to show solidarity with its employees, and also provide its patrons with a higher level of service—servers who know the restaurant and its cuisine well and have a real connection to the business and a stake in its future.
For fine-dining restaurants transitioning into the ghost kitchen space and trying to replicate a fine-dining experience in a contactless world, proprietary delivery allows the creative control they need.
Carbon Footprinting
Since well before the pandemic, there has been a growing desire among consumers to know the origins of their food. That has not changed, and people care more than ever about their meal’s carbon footprint and whether it was ethically sourced.
In their 2020 survey, Innova Market Insights found that 60% of global consumers wanted to know where their food came from. Carbon Trust, a certification body, is currently calculating the carbon footprints of approximately 28,000 products, including food items. And some restaurants have begun sharing the carbon history of their menu items with consumers.
Panera has begun a program called Cool Food Meals, which identifies and labels entrées with lower carbon emissions involved in their production. NYC-based restaurant chain Just Salads found that their sales increased 26% after launching their carbon labeling initiative. Chipotle has pioneered a proprietary “foodprint” calculating tool that evaluates five different measures of sustainability:
Less carbon in the atmosphere
Water saved
Improved soil health
Organic land supported
Antibiotics avoided
These restaurants are at the forefront of this movement, and the pressure on the restaurant industry to prioritize the environmental impact of our food choices continues to gain momentum.
Immune-Boosting Nutrition
With the global pandemic at the forefront of everyone’s consciousness, it’s understandable that many people are concerned about maintaining and boosting their immune systems. ADM reports that 57% of consumers globally have increased levels of concern about immunity since the pandemic. Recent research into a possible connection between low vitamin D levels and more severe cases of COVID-19 has brought vitamin D and its role in immune function into the news.
Research is ongoing and we don’t yet have a definitive answer, but there is now a growing awareness among the public of the importance of vitamin D for health. Because approximately 40% of the U.S. population is deficient in vitamin D, restaurants have an opportunity to educate their customers about which foods on the menu contain immune-boosting nutrients. Salmon, mushrooms, egg yolks, and milk fortified with vitamin D are a few of the popular foods that provide some vitamin D.
Consumers are well-acquainted with Vitamin C and its beneficial effects on the immune system, and there are many popular foods rich in this vitamin: citrus, peppers, strawberries, kiwi, cauliflower, broccoli, and sweet potatoes, to name just a few. As we begin to understand the connection between gut health and the immune system, consumers are also getting excited about functional foods containing probiotics, like sauerkraut, kombucha, yogurt, tempeh, kimchi, and kefir.
It’s important to note that of course vitamins and probiotics won’t prevent infection with the COVID-19 virus; however, they may help people maintain healthy immune systems. Restaurants are in a unique position to help their patrons make healthful choices that may not only benefit them individually but could potentially also contribute to public health.
These diverse trends all point to one important quality inherent in the restaurant industry as well as in humanity as a whole—the ability to adapt. We are resilient, and we can pivot intelligently and intentionally as we learn new information and actively respond to the changing environment around us. COVID-19 may have us on the ropes right now, but there is a future that lies ahead, to be reimagined and redesigned. When 2021 comes, we’ll be ready.
About the Author:
Joli Bennett—food writer and nutrition coach—holds a B.S. in dietetics and a B.A. and M.A. in philosophy and literature and has taught in the Hospitality and Tourism Management department at San Francisco State University. Now Outreach Coordinator at Zen Media, she writes on behalf of OneDine, the leader in contactless dining solutions.
